JOHN GROCHOWSKI writes that one run games don’t tell you how good a team is. Then produces stat after stat showing that winning teams do better in one run games than losing teams. And then ignores thsoe stats.
From 2007 to 2011, the 20 teams that made the NL playoffs had a .565 winning percentage overall. In an average of 46 one-run decisions per team, that dropped to .543. In the American League, the difference was even larger. The 20 AL playoff teams had a .585 winning percentage overall, but it was only .544 in just less than 46 one-run games per team.
What about the poor teams? A look at the last-place finishers in each division from 2007 to 2011 found the 15 NL cellar-dwellers had an overall winning percentage of .404, but it was .434 in one-run decisions. In the AL, the percentages were .416 overall and .462 in one-run decisions.
In other words, losing teams had losing records no matter what and winning teams had winning records and their winning records were better than the losing records so ...... ARGGGHHHHH!