With the Bulls kicking off their NBA season tonight, our very own round ball maniac, El Rosado, has taken time out of his insanely busy life to give you a preview on their season and some predictions for other stuff as well. So, kick back, pop open a frosty and enjoy.
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In an 82 game NBA season, it’s kind of hard to place too much value or emphasis on just one or two games, especially when those games represent the first two games of the season and are thus a very early and very small sample size of what to look for in a particular team moving forward. However, with our very own Chicago Bulls opening the season tonight with back-to-back games at home against the San Antonio Spurs (my pick to win the West) and on the road against the hated Boston Celtics in a rematch of last seasons first round playoff matchup that the Bulls lost in 7 games, the Bulls find themselves as one of the rare exceptions to this general rule of thumb. They get to face 2 of the 5 legit NBA title contenders entering the season right away; 10 of their first 14 games are against teams that made the playoffs last season (including 2 against Cleveland and Denver, both of whom lost in the Conference Finals and 1 against the defending champion Lakers in LA) and they play 11 of their first 17 games on the road (including the annual circus-trip in November that takes them on a 6-game road-trip). By this Saturday morning, we’ll know if the Bulls have even a chance to compete with the elite; by Saturday December 5th we’ll know if they’re legit.
The Bulls enter the season being projected as anywhere between the 4th seed in the East, to missing the playoffs entirely. I think the former is a possibility, the latter is highly unlikely unless injuries absolutely wreck this team. To everyone who says this team will miss Ben Gordon terribly and his absence will kill the Bulls, I offer a puzzled look and a scratching of the head. Huh? Don’t get me wrong, BG was great for what he was – an undersized streaky shooting guard with shaky ball-handling and passing who couldn’t create shots for anyone else or play even average defense, but boy oh boy, if he got going, he was GOING and he could carry a team offensively, plus he was absolutely fearless when it came to taking big shots late in the game. On the flip-side, when he didn’t have it, it was an ugly thing to watch. Shots clanking left and right, the offense stagnating as BG got the ball and put up another forced shot rather than make the extra pass. He was the proverbial black hole in the offense, give him the ball and you could plan on not getting it back. Sometimes, this worked out great (see game 4 and game 2 against Boston). Other times, well, not so much (see games 6/7 against Boston). With BG it was always all or nothing, sure he “averaged” 20 per game, but if you look at his box scores for, say, a 10-game stretch, his totals were maddeningly inconsistent. Just take a look at his numbers in games 57-67 last season for the classic BG quandary; 20, 17, 11, 16, 14, 15, 34, 43, 4, 9. John Salmons is not as explosive a scorer as BG, but he is far more consistent in getting his 20 points, gets to the free-throw line more, and plays better defense. Plus, he now has acclimated himself to the Bulls offense after coming here in a mid-season trade. So long as his troublesome groin injury that hindered him last year doesn’t flare up again, the Bulls should have no problem replacing BG’s scoring at the 2-guard. Salmons ball-handling is questionable, but with Rose in the back-court running point and Hinrich and Pargo coming off the bench at guard, he shouldn’t be asked to handle the rock and initiate offense anyway. Speaking of Hinrich, I’m expecting a good season out of him, he knows his role is that of the first guard off the bench spelling either Rose or Salmons depending on the situation and he will be asked to play 25-35 minutes per night and be a strong contributor off the bench. I think he’s up for the challenge. As for Derrick Rose, I’m expecting a huge season. His shot has improved. He’s confident. He knows it his team now and defers to nobody. Huge season is coming. Huge like he’ll make the all-star game this season, average 23pts/9ast, and replace BG as the guy who will takeover late in the game when the Bulls need buckets. Just watch. People will soon be forgetting stressing over not having someone deliver 4th-quarter heroics the way BG did by December once Rose has taken over and won some games.
Meanwhile, Luol Deng is back and completely healthy and should be ready to give the Bulls 35 quality minutes per night at small-forward now that Salmons has shifted to the 2-guard. Getting Deng back is like practically signing a new free-agent, given all the injury issues he had last season. Deng is one of those guys who is always productive in multiple ways, he can score and rebound, and he doesn’t need you to run offense through him to score, he’ll get his on put backs, open jumpers off ball movement, and transition baskets. As for the notion that his game doesn’t mesh well with Rose (brought up by Steve Rosenbloom) I say this – show me a small-forward that runs the floor who CAN’T play with an elite point guard making his life easier by getting him easy shots and I’ll show you a guy who doesn’t belong in the NBA. Deng will be fine and the frontcourt looks to be a real strength. JTJ favorite Joakim Noah started the off-season by hanging out on the beach with a topless snow bunny, then went and improved his conditioning, added muscle to his upper-body and looks to have developed a hook shot. He’s also embraced a leadership role on this team, similar to his role in college at Florida. Tyrus Thomas is in a make or break year since he will be a restricted free-agent at the end of the season. If he finally fulfills his immense potential, that’d be great. If he doesn’t, the Bulls will need to make a hard decision at mid-season and consider trading him before the deadline while he still has some value so they can get something for him rather than let him go in free-agency. Rookie Taj Gibson, who I’ve dubbed “Ty-lite” due to his Tyrus-esque game (not quite the athlete but a smarter player) is ready to fill in if needed, and fellow rookie forward James Johnson has one of those games that is ugly to watch and at times you look at him and say to yourself “how did a guy who looks like that make it to the NBA” but at the end of the day he can play, he’s intense and he hits the glass hard. The shot extending out to the 3pt range is an added bonus. Brad Miller is in the last year of his large contract and provides veteran leadership off the bench at center and is still one of the best passing and shooting big men in the NBA despite getting up there in age.
We’re going to learn a lot about the Bulls in the next month or so and especially in the next 2 games as they face 2 of the top-5 teams in the NBA. The Spurs are perhaps the most underrated and under-appreciated dynasty in sports (Yes, I said the D-word). All they’ve done in the last 11 seasons is make it to 6 Western Conference Finals, going 4-2 in those series, and a perfect 4-0 in their appearances in the NBA Finals. They’ve only failed to make it out of the first round of the playoffs once in best power forward of all time Tim Duncan’s 12 seasons with the team – coincidentally, he didn’t play in the playoffs one of those years due to a torn meniscus and last year he was hobbled by foot and knee injuries. After enjoying their first long off-season in quite some time, they reloaded their roster with size to help Duncan in the frontcourt (steady veteran Antonio McDyess and rookie bruiser DeJuan Blair), and a much-needed injection of athleticism/4th scoring option on the wing in small-forward Richard Jefferson. They also still have the best coach in the NBA (sorry Phil) and year-in year-out the best team chemistry and makeup. Factor in a return to health for star guard Manu Ginobli after playing in just 38 games last season, an improved bench, and a an all-star point-guard who has 3 rings and Eva Longoria under his belt already and is just NOW hitting his prime (Tony Parker) and the Spurs will provide an optimal challenge to the Bulls to open the season. Meanwhile, the Celtics have obtained “grudgingly respected villain” status from Bulls fans following last seasons classic first-round battle. They’re also reloaded. KG is not 100% just yet, but he’s back after missing the final 24 games and all of the playoffs with a knee injury last season. You already know about Paul Pierce and sweet-shooting Jesus Shuttleswor – errrr, Ray Allen. Rajon Rondo had a monster post-season and has changed this team from a “Big 3” to a “Big 4” in terms of star players. Side-note, I told my Boston friend/fan back in 2008 before they won the title that Rondo would be their most indisposable player by this season. He’s right on schedule. Kendrick Perkins is an absolute defensive and rebounding force at center. And the Celtics addressed their biggest issues from last year, lack of size off the bench and a lack of a James Posey-type of wing player off the bench like they had when they won it all in 2008 by signing Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels. This team is deeper and better than the one we last saw ending our season in May and will provide a huge road test for the Bulls in what is sure to be a hostile environment.
If the Bulls can sweep these 2 games, it would be a huge start to the season. A split wouldn’t be bad either, and I can even talk myself into 0-2 not being a bad thing IF the Bulls play well in both games and just lose close ones to superior squads. But if they get blown out in both games and look bad to start the year? I might have to do the Thick McRunFast face-palm thing. Either way, I’m predicting a strong season for the Bulls, the 4-seed in the East is very attainable if they stay healthy, overall I can’t see them falling lower than 6th, so we’ll split the difference and call it a 47-35 season and the 5-seed.
And while I’m at it, here are a couple of other quick predictions:
MVP – Dwight Howard
Defensive Player of the Year – Dwight Howard
6th man of the Year – Jamal Crawford
Rookie of the Year – Blake Griffin
Most Improved Player – I hate this award – Anthony Randolph
Coach Of The Year – Vinny Del Negro. HA!!! Had to get a joke in! Real pick – Scotty Brooks
Scoring Champ - Kevin Durant
Rebounding Champ - Dwight Howard
Assists Champ – Chris Paul
Steals Champ – Rajon Rondo
Blocks Champ – Dwight Howard